No doubt about it, this Easter was an exciting time for many American Catholics, with quick surveys showing 38% more people converting into the church than the previous year.

The Easter Vigil surge hit dioceses large and small, with a 139% increase in Los Angeles and 145% in Duluth, Minnesota, a 52% rise in Chicago and 96% in Rapid City, South Dakota. A much-sited analysis by Hallow.com found that 38% surge in 140 U.S. dioceses.

The rising numbers almost reached the modest conversion levels that were normal before the COVIC-19 pandemic. The rate had been declining for many years before that.

"If you're in a parish that's growing, you look around and see newcomers everywhere. You go to Mass at least 10 minutes early to make sure there's some place to sit. That's your reality," said Brendan Hodge, a contributing editor for The Pillar, reached by telephone.

"If you're in a congregation that's in decline, you aren't surrounded by young families and converts who are excited about the Catholic faith. Your reality is very different."

Gazing ahead, it's hard to know how this surge will affect the future, he said. Is the "big story" that some Catholic parishes are growing or that many others are dying? To answer that question, it's important to study other powerful trends in Catholic life.

The sobering fact is that Catholics leaving the faith far outnumber converts. According to General Social Survey numbers, in 1973, "84% of all those raised Catholic still identified as Catholic when surveyed as adults. In 2002, that figure was 74%. By 2022, it had dropped to 62%," noted Michael Rote and Stephen Bullivant, in the Church Life Journal, published by the University of Notre Dame.

"Perhaps a more salient question is how many of those raised Catholic still participate in Mass every Sunday," they added. "In 1973, about 34% of all those raised Catholic were attending Mass weekly (or more often) when they were surveyed as adults. By 2002, the number had fallen to 20%. By 2022, it had plummeted to 11%."